SOURCES & METHODS
Economic evidence with dates and definitions
How Nile Atlas separates reported history, national releases, provider projections and research scenarios.
Annual history: World Bank WDI
The annual country and comparison pages use World Bank World Development Indicators. Each observation keeps its year label and native unit. Missing values stay missing; no interpolation or gap filling is applied. Forecast-flagged values are not part of the historical baseline, while a source-reported historical value may itself be estimated or revised.
CPI inflation is the annual-average percentage change in the consumer price index. It is not the latest monthly year-on-year headline, a policy rate, or the price level itself. Egypt’s GDP national accounts may use fiscal-year reporting; the selected Gulf economies generally use calendar years. Matching WDI year labels does not align the exact economic periods.
Total reserves include gold and differ from the CBE net-reserve headline. ILO modelled unemployment differs from a national labour-force release; central-government debt differs from general-government debt. Nominal GDP in current US dollars is affected by exchange rates as well as output and prices.
Country and comparison HTML pages read the same controlled annual-data broker as the dashboard. Successful responses are shared for six hours; source failures retain dated observations and show a fallback label. These are on-demand checks, not a claim that every provider publishes continuously.
National releases and the archive
The official data hub uses guarded national adapters where working connections are available. Each release retains its original source, units, native frequency, period and retrieval date. Source-directory links alone are not active data feeds. Press-reported readings remain labelled separately from directly retrieved official values.
The release desk records observations prospectively when verified source checks occur. It does not reconstruct past real-time vintages, and the first time Nile Atlas observes a value is not necessarily the provider’s publication time.
Forecasts and conditional scenarios
IMF WEO GDP estimates and projections remain labelled by edition, status and reporting basis; they are not inserted into WDI history. Egypt’s IMF fiscal-year labels differ from Gulf calendar-year labels.
The Bayesian lab is a separate JavaScript annual conjugate VAR(1) for historical GDP growth and annual-average CPI. Its predictive bands reflect parameter and future-innovation uncertainty under the stated model. Latest-vintage expanding-window benchmarks are pseudo out of sample; short annual samples do not establish dependable forecast superiority. The original MATLAB toolkit has not run on the website; the downloadable MATLAB teaching package uses synthetic data.
Policy-rate and FX paths are editable conditional scenarios, not calibrated decision probabilities. Business sensitivities apply explicit hypothetical user inputs. Commodity benchmarks are dated World Bank monthly averages, not live exchange quotes or futures prices. The futures guide describes contracts and provides official exchange links.
Bayesian forecast lab · Policy & FX scenarios · Growth and global drivers
Reproduction and statistical limits
Statistical association does not establish causality. OLS uses HC1 standard errors, which do not correct serial correlation. The working OLS “Reproduce in Python” export includes the exact transformed and lagged model sample. The Bayesian lab exports its fitted sample, settings and results as CSV/JSON; it is not a Python-export tool.
Local model settings and business inputs stay in the browser. No registration is required to view core public data or news. Technical access data may be processed by the hosting infrastructure under its own policies.
Country research directory
Browse all research or choose an economy: Egypt · Saudi Arabia · UAE · Kuwait · Oman.
Annual indicator pages
Economy comparisons
Attribution and further definitions
Provider data retain their own licenses and any indicator-specific terms. Mina Lawendy curates the workspace and supplies original presentation and research tools; original data producers retain their attribution.
Full interactive source directory · About the creator · Published daily briefings