Egypt / Business scenarios
Stress-test the cash balance of a hypothetical Egyptian retailer and see when slower collections, currency changes or higher interest could create a funding gap.
For public finances, test annual budget gaps using the six governments’ approved budgets. The retailer’s quarterly calculation below uses separate company assumptions.
See the worked retailer model · Check the dated macro inputs
A positive FX change means a weaker pound. The FX and rate shocks take effect in Q2. The domestic cost shock and customer price recovery start in Q3. The settlement changes apply to new sales and costs from Q1. Existing receivables and payables follow the starting case.
First quarter-end shortfall: Q1. Largest funding gap: EGP 0.70 million.
| Quarter | Opening cash | Cash collected | Suppliers paid | Interest paid | Stress closing cash | Starting-case closing cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 8.00 | 17.50 | 25.00 | 1.20 | -0.70 | 11.80 |
| Q2 | -0.70 | 25.00 | 22.40 | 1.45 | 0.45 | 15.60 |
| Q3 | 0.45 | 25.84 | 23.36 | 1.45 | 1.48 | 19.40 |
| Q4 | 1.48 | 26.68 | 23.36 | 1.45 | 3.35 | 23.20 |
The starting case uses the same opening cash, pre-shock settlement terms and 24% starting borrowing rate. The rate uses the CBE deposit-rate reference for plus the example’s assumed loan spread.
Each stress closing balance carries forward without new financing. The largest negative quarter-end balance is the funding gap over the four-quarter window. Quarterly figures exclude intra-quarter cash lows, taxes, capital expenditure, inventory changes and debt principal repayments.
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