Country Risk Watch

Government budgets and debt stocks

Approved budgets are official plans. Open the earlier periods for reported outturns and prior plans. The debt observation is a stock at its own date and can have different coverage from the budget. Where domestic and external snapshots have different dates, the table keeps the matched stock and gives newer partial coverage separately. UAE figures here cover federal government. Each row uses its own national currency.

How shocks change the annual budget gap

Start with the approved plans above or replay the same shock on the latest verified full-year outturn for each economy. Outturn years can differ. The default scenario reduces revenue by 5% and raises spending by 5%. Try a single shock or enter your own. An energy-receipts shock changes government receipts from the published energy line. A change in oil prices would require separate assumptions about prices, volumes and fiscal terms.

Balance is revenue less expenditure. A negative balance is shown as a positive budget gap. The total revenue shock applies first. The energy adjustment then applies to the remaining energy receipts. The budget gap excludes maturities, new borrowing and cash balances. It cannot establish how many months of cash a government has. For Egypt, the reported overall fiscal balance also includes net acquisition of financial assets.

Test refinancing costs on published principal · Open the separate business cash runway · Track related developments

Six macro signals

Each cell shows the latest eligible reading and its year. Changes use that economy’s exact previous year and are calculated before rounding. A year label alone does not align fiscal and calendar reporting. Egypt’s IMF debt figures use fiscal years ending in June.

Reserve totals include gold and differ from national net reserve headlines. Current-account figures include goods, services, income and transfers. Annual-average CPI and monthly headline inflation use different periods. Unemployment uses modelled ILO estimates. Each signal has its own definition and update schedule.

Worked comparison · Egypt and Qatar

Suppose global energy prices rise. An Egyptian retailer can test a weaker pound, a separate rise in domestic input costs and slower customer collections. For a Qatar LNG exporter, separate the effect of export prices from changes in volumes. Use a rate scenario to explore financing costs under the maintained currency peg.

Sources and definitions

• IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026 · gross general government debt · 2024 and 2025 readings can include IMF staff estimates. Review the debt stocks and test refinancing.
• World Bank WDI · Total reserves including gold.
• World Bank WDI · Current account balance.
• World Bank WDI · Annual-average CPI inflation.
• World Bank WDI · Real GDP growth.
• World Bank WDI · Unemployment (ILO modelled).

The readings are descriptive signals. A crisis probability would require a broader historical panel, dated outcomes and validation on unseen periods. Read the site’s sources and methods.