COUNTRY RISK / EGYPT AND THE GULF
Macro Transmission Lab
Compare published forecasts for growth, inflation and the current account across six economies, then trace how the same economic shock could affect each one.
Compare growth forecasts Compare inflation and external balances Explore shock scenarios
Where growth forecasts differ
The IMF and World Bank published separate October 2026 outlooks. Compare annual real GDP growth for the same country and period. Egypt’s 2027 forecast covers the fiscal year ending June 2027. The five Gulf forecasts cover calendar 2027.
2027 real GDP growth forecasts (%) with each source’s 2026 figure for context
Economy IMF World Bank World Bank minus IMF
Egypt FY2026/27 4.7% 2026: 5.1% 4.3% 2026: 5.1% -0.4 pp
Saudi Arabia 2027 7.9% 2026: -3.3% 7.9% 2026: -2.0% 0.0 pp
United Arab Emirates 2027 7.7% 2026: -3.9% 9.5% 2026: -1.6% +1.8 pp
Kuwait 2027 17.1% 2026: -16.7% 22.0% 2026: -14.6% +4.9 pp
Oman 2027 2.2% 2026: 4.1% 3.4% 2026: 3.1% +1.2 pp
Qatar 2027 18.8% 2026: -15.6% 26.7% 2026: -20.9% +7.9 pp
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook was published on 13 October 2026. Each World Bank figure links to its country table in the October 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook. The 2026 inputs are the institutions’ published estimates or projections. For Egypt they cover FY2025/26. The gap is in percentage points (pp), calculated from the displayed 2027 values.
Qatar’s rebound starts from different bases
Qatar has the widest 2027 growth gap of the six. The World Bank projects a deeper contraction in 2026 and a larger rebound in 2027. Compounding both years from each institution’s 2025 level gives almost the same implied 2027 output index.
IMF: -15.6% then 18.8% → 100.3
World Bank: -20.9% then 26.7% → 100.2
Each index starts at 100 in 2025 and compounds the two published annual rates.
The World Bank’s rebound assumes LNG production restarts in early 2027 and North Field East comes online in stages. Delays to production or shipments could weaken the rebound. Read the World Bank’s Qatar outlook .
Inflation and external balances
Compare the same October 2026 outlooks across two more measures. Egypt uses fiscal years ending in June. The five Gulf economies use calendar years.
Consumer price inflation (% annual average) · 2027 forecast with 2026 context
Economy IMF World Bank World Bank minus IMF
Egypt FY2026/27 14.8%FY2025/26: 13.3%
14.2% FY2025/26: 13.3% -0.6 pp
Saudi Arabia 2027 2.2%2026: 1.9%
3.0% 2026: 3.4% +0.8 pp
United Arab Emirates 2027 2.5%2026: 4.5%
1.8% 2026: 2.7% -0.7 pp
Kuwait 2027 2.4%2026: 2.2%
2.4% 2026: 4.3% 0.0 pp
Oman 2027 2.7%2026: 3.2%
3.2% 2026: 3.9% +0.5 pp
Qatar 2027 3.1%2026: 3.6%
1.9% 2026: 2.7% -1.2 pp
Current account balance (% of GDP) · 2027 forecast with 2026 context
Economy IMF World Bank World Bank minus IMF
Egypt FY2026/27 -4.9%FY2025/26: -4.4%
-4.2% FY2025/26: -4.7% +0.7 pp
Saudi Arabia 2027 -1.3%2026: -3.5%
-0.9% 2026: -1.4% +0.4 pp
United Arab Emirates 2027 7.8%2026: 4.8%
13.4% 2026: 8.2% +5.6 pp
Kuwait 2027 24.9%2026: 18.3%
20.3% 2026: 13.5% -4.6 pp
Oman 2027 6.7%2026: 5.0%
3.2% 2026: 3.5% -3.5 pp
Qatar 2027 13.7%2026: 7.1%
13.7% 2026: 4.2% 0.0 pp
The 2026 figures are estimates or projections as published. Inflation is annual-average CPI growth. A positive current account balance indicates a surplus. Each gap compares the two published forecasts for the same period, in percentage points.
Oman’s external outlook goes in two directions
The IMF projects Oman’s current account surplus to widen from 5.0% to 6.7% of GDP. The World Bank projects it to narrow from 3.5% to 3.2%. Both project a surplus in 2027. Track export volumes, energy receipts and imports to see which path the data follows.
Download GDP, inflation and current account projections with sources (CSV)
Higher oil and gas prices Higher US interest rates Higher US interest rates
Assume US interest rates stay higher over the next few quarters. The scenario allows for different local policy responses, exchange-rate arrangements and borrowing terms in each economy.
Each pathway traces how the shock could affect household spending, investment, government spending or net exports. The equity notes identify possible sector exposures. The linked briefings provide dated context for checking the scenario.
Egypt Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Oman Qatar
First effect Higher US rates can raise the cost of new dollar borrowing and make it harder for Egypt to attract portfolio inflows.
What could follow If pressure weakens the pound, import prices can rise. Local policy rates depend on domestic inflation and the Central Bank of Egypt’s response.
GDP channels Business investment can slow if external borrowing costs rise. Portfolio flows affect GDP indirectly through financing and the pound.
What could offset it Watch whether Egypt’s dollar bond spreads narrow enough to offset the rise in US yields.
Equity exposure Firms that refinance dollar debt without matching dollar revenues are exposed through interest expense and, if the pound weakens, debt service.
What to watch Watch USD/EGP, sovereign dollar yields, foreign holdings of local debt, and the central bank’s rate decision.
Background evidence · IMF · Egypt seventh review staff report, August 2026
Recent country briefing · Egypt’s quarterly remittances reach $13 billion 10 Nov 2026 · Edition 11 Nov 2026
Policy and FX scenarios · Refinancing calculator · Related reported events
First effect Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg creates a close link between US rates and Saudi monetary policy.
What could follow Tighter local funding can raise financing costs for businesses and projects. Bank liquidity and loan repricing determine the timing.
GDP channels Business investment and credit-financed household consumption may slow if borrowing costs rise.
What could offset it Ample bank liquidity or stronger public project spending could sustain lending or investment.
Equity exposure Leveraged developers face higher financing costs as loans reprice. Banks’ earnings depend on how quickly loan yields and deposit costs adjust.
What to watch Watch the Saudi Central Bank repo rate, interbank rates, bank liquidity, and private credit growth.
Background evidence · IMF · GCC policy paper on resilience to global shocks, December 2025
Recent country briefing · Saudi Energy’s nine-month revenue rises 11.5% 10 Nov 2026 · Edition 11 Nov 2026
Policy and FX scenarios · Refinancing calculator · Related reported events
First effect The UAE’s dollar peg links the central bank’s base rate to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate on reserve balances.
What could follow Higher domestic funding rates can reach new mortgages and business credit. Loan terms, bank liquidity, and borrower demand shape the response.
GDP channels Higher mortgage and business borrowing rates can slow new residential construction and business investment.
What could offset it Cash purchases and strong demand could sustain activity even if new mortgage approvals slow.
Equity exposure Developers with near-term refinancing may face higher costs. Sales and rental demand determine how much this weighs on earnings.
What to watch Watch the CBUAE base rate, EIBOR, new lending, and property transactions.
Background evidence · Central Bank of the UAE · How the monetary system works
Recent country briefing · ADNOC Gas raises 2026 guidance after quarterly profit rebound 10 Nov 2026 · Edition 11 Nov 2026
Policy and FX scenarios · Refinancing calculator · Related reported events
First effect Kuwait pegs the dinar to a currency basket. US rates matter, and the Central Bank of Kuwait’s policy rate can move by a different amount.
What could follow A rise in local rates can affect bank lending, deposits, and credit demand as contracts reprice.
GDP channels Consumption and private investment could slow if local bank lending becomes more expensive.
What could offset it If Kuwait’s discount rate and retail lending rates stay stable, the domestic credit channel would be weaker.
Equity exposure Bank margins depend on how quickly loan yields rise relative to deposit costs, while loan growth depends on borrower demand.
What to watch Watch the central bank’s discount rate and local deposit and lending rates alongside US policy.
Background evidence · Central Bank of Kuwait · Exchange rate policy
Recent country briefing · Boursa Kuwait launches fixed-income platform with KFH sukuk 10 Nov 2026 · Edition 11 Nov 2026
Policy and FX scenarios · Refinancing calculator · Related reported events
First effect Under Oman’s dollar peg, local policy rates tend to move closely with US rates.
What could follow The IMF finds weaker transmission to actual deposit and lending rates. Domestic liquidity and loan repricing can delay the effect on borrowers.
GDP channels Private investment and consumption respond through actual lending rates and credit availability.
What could offset it If effective lending rates barely move despite a policy-rate increase, the spending effect is likely to be smaller.
Equity exposure The cost of borrowing for developers and industrial firms may adjust slowly where existing debt is fixed-rate or banks absorb the increase.
What to watch Watch central bank rates, effective lending and deposit rates, and private credit growth.
Background evidence · IMF · Monetary policy transmission in Oman, 2024
Recent country briefing · Oman issues four decrees for its financial centre 10 Nov 2026 · Edition 11 Nov 2026
Policy and FX scenarios · Refinancing calculator · Related reported events
First effect Qatar fixes the riyal to the dollar, and the Qatar Central Bank generally aligns its policy rates with US rates.
What could follow If domestic rates rise, new borrowing and refinancing can become more expensive. Banks’ liquidity and the terms of existing loans matter.
GDP channels Higher domestic borrowing costs can slow private investment and credit-financed household spending.
What could offset it Strong deposit funding could limit the increase in new lending rates even as policy rates rise.
Equity exposure Refinancing costs matter for leveraged real estate firms. Banks’ margins depend on how quickly loan yields and funding costs adjust.
What to watch Watch Qatar Central Bank deposit and lending rates, interbank rates, and credit growth.
Background evidence · IMF · Qatar staff visit, September 2025
Recent country briefing · Qatar’s Lesha Bank agrees staged sale of six A380s 10 Nov 2026 · Edition 11 Nov 2026
Policy and FX scenarios · Refinancing calculator · Related reported events
Country Risk Watch · Risk Event Tracker · Sources and methods